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Instrument Trend Recommendation 19-6-2013

EUR/USD Sell below 1.3395TP1.3350/25,SL1.3420 BOB 1.3430

GBP/USD Sell below1.5645,TP1.5610/5580 ,SL1.5660 ,BOB1.5675

GOLD Buy above 1364,TP1370/75,SL1359,BOS1355

USD/JPY Buy above 95.15TP95.70/96,SL94.80 BOS 94.75

Important news; FOMC Statement at 11pm

At USD/EUR 1.34, for Germany, imports are up, and exports are down.  Will the ECB and the Bundesbank, both located in Frankfurt, take notice?

Recommendations: LONG positions above  1.3385 with 1.3430 & 1.3460 as next targets.

Alternative scenario:The downside breakout of 1.3385 will call for a slide to 1.3335/1.3290

Description: The pair trades above its support 1.3385, as long as this level holds,look for further upside gains towards 1.3430 & 1.3460 levels, an hourly close below 1.3385 would delay the bullish move but downside below 1.3385 is likely to be…

Better than expected ZEW for Germany, helped EUR a lot to make a new top at 1.3415, but it is necessary to say that the EUR tested the support at 1.3330 several times yesterday. This means that 1.3320-30 area is now a very important area and if it is broken to the downside that will mean another 150 pips down. On Daily we can see the high price level consolidation and that we are closer and closer to a correction lower.Usually consolidations like this one end up with a big bearish candle of…

I see the pair at the end of a 2 leg pullback, the second leg being right at the same height as the first leg.  overall the pair is generally bearish, and also looks bearish on daily but currently pulling back.  the last 4 daily bars are inside bars within a large bearish candle.  something interesting to note is that from the peak on may 22 to the low on jun 16 the number of bars is about 100, with bars closing higher than they opened about equal to the amount of bars closing lower than…

Tomorrow the Federal Reserve will take its high wire act to new levels. It will attempt to convince the markets that the U.S. economy is improving but is not so improved that it can do without $85 billion a month in quantitative easing.…

UBS - "Any post-FOMC pullback in USDCAD towards strong technical support at 1.0120 should offer dip-buying opportunities for those looking to exploit upside potential into the Bank of Canada's July 17 meeting."

Ranking on Major Pairs and Cross-Rates per June 18th.

The right column is the day before.

For more details click on the table.

Ok srs, stay focus

Bearish rally done, now the Bullish zone incoming 3H chart

Goldman Sachs - "Our core view over the medium and longer term is to expect broad Dollar weakness. This is due to the large structural deficits in the balance of payments and government budget that are likely to persist, and the easy monetary policy stance of the Fed. Despite recent speculation that the Fed is close to ‘tapering’ its asset purchases, in our view the Fed will announce the reduction of the rate of monthly asset purchases in December 2013, after which we expect the purchases to…

Societé Generale - "1. Long USD into first Fed exit steps, vs most G10 and EM

G10 basket of choice for the coming month long USD vs JPY, CHF, EUR and CAD.

2. Sell EUR/USD after recent short covering - we still see 1.20 by end-2013

Sell EUR/USD into strength for a move lower over H2.

3. Buy EUR/CHF into weakness to position for long-term valuation mean-reversion

4. Take advantage of USD/JPY correction to reload high strikes

5. Buy NOK and GBP vs EUR

6.Long FX…

Rabobank - "Although we expect no policy action at this week’s meeting (June 18-19), the FOMC is scheduled to update its economic projections and Bernanke will hold a post-meeting press conference. The markets will follow the latter with even more interest than usual. While the Fed Chairman may attempt to give more clarity about tapering off QE3, it will be difficult to reduce market uncertainty because there does not seem to be a consensus in the FOMC on an explicit criterion for stopping…

Currently we are at 0.6464 after breaking back into the old trend.   Looking to continue down to the 0.786 Fibo (S7) @ 0.9398.  A break of that look for a double bottom @ 0.9326. The average daily true range (ATR) for the pair currently is 154 pips.…

After few weeks I try again a blog about the gold. What I realized that very few talked about this asset in the last few month, One or two years ago each day all the media was full with gold news.By now the gold has been falling out completely from the focus of the speculators. I told everyone when I was I asked this is not a bullish market anymore. You have be flat or sell it, but don’t buy anymore.Generally I am concerned about the wholse commodity asset group, I guess they are no sexy…

Deutsche Bank - "US real yields have relentlessly marched higher since May. Some may be surprised by the recent ack of broad dollar strength, but one needs to recall that low real yields since late 2008 were manifesting themselves most in a weak dollar against commodity/$-bloc currencies (notably AUD and NZD) and emerging currencies. Therefore, a change in the real yield trend should most directly translate to dollar strength against those currencies, and indeed that has been the case. With…