mcapitalmarkets
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Statistic & Probabilistic Trading

EURUSD Longer Term Short Position

This is a very nice,longer term position that I took on August 27th. Just like its counterpart, USDCHF.

A classic tight range where the over and under pattern was once again present.

A 4H high was established @1.3400, on August 8, providing a nice resistance level. The level was once again tested on the 20th leaving a strong supply area rightabove it. Than, again, on the 27th, the level was visited once more. This time a Short position was established @ the 1.3997 area with stops above 1.3452.

This is was a text book over and under pattern trade with decent stops.

The pair was facing some exhaustion to the upside as suggested by the 4H MACD bear divergence pointing towards the 1.2990 level.

Therefore a bearish correction was due thus making this trade a no brainer.

Position currently secured by trailing stops with good floating profit.

Levels for the trade:

SL: 1.3455
Short @: 1.3997
TP @: 1.2995


USDCHF Long Position

This is a very nice,longer term position that I took on August 27th.

A classic tight range where the over and under pattern was once again present.

A 4H low established @ 0.9175, on August 8, provided a nice support level. The level was once again tested on the 20th leaving a strong demand area right below it. Than, again, on the 27th, the level was visited once more. This time a long position was established @ the 0.9177 area with stops below 0.9145.

This is was a text book over and under pattern trade with really tight stops.

The pair was facing some exhaustion to the downside as suggested by the 4H MACD bull divergence pointing towards the 0.9533 level.

Therefore a bullish correction was due thus making this trade a no brainer.

Position currently secured by trailing stops with good floating profit.

Levels for the trade:

SL: 0.9143
Long @: 0.9177
TP @:0.9533


Over & Under Pattern. Target already within reach.

USDJPY Diamond - Long and Short Term Setups

The Dollar Yen pair has presented a breakout of contracting range that began on April, 2013. This range presented itself as a clear cut diamond formation on the daily time frame.

A position LONG should have been established  around the 95.80 level. Some 30-40 pips SL would be a safe bet projecting the break towards the upside as the main diagonalof the formation is pointing down and therefore a break up was indeed to be expected.

The projected target to the upside is 108.85.

Levels for this trade that took place on August 8th 2013:

SL: 95.45
Buy: 95.85
TP: 108.85

Trailing stops already triggered.

If one was unable to catch the bottom of the formation, there was a chance to assume a LONG position last Tuesday (09.03.2013) and leave the position open 'betting' on USD strength due to the range breakout. Very conservative stops on this one.

Levels for this trade:

SL: 99.13
Entry: 99.32
TP 1: 100.00
TP 2: 108.85

Trade @ BE currently and partial close triggered @ 100.00.



Daily Chart Showing a Diamond Formation


A side note on this is that retail NET SHORT positions on USDJPY and crosses (YEN LONG) have surged by almost 150% since last week. Therefore, my contratrian view supports YEN weakness against all majors.

On another side note, there's always a possibility that the formation fails to deliver. However, a failed pattern is as good as the original plan because it clearly states that the market has chosen the opposite direction.  A MACD bear divergence on the daily time frame points towards the 90.90. So the pair is clearly showing early signs of exhaustion and a major turnaround shall not be disregarded as probable.

These were my predictions back in 2011.

Interesting they are slowly becoming a reality.

Best to all and stay healthy.



The U.S. Dollar and Commodities


As stated earlier, the U.S. dollar (USD) should gain against all currencies, except the JPY, in the coming years. I predict the USDX, currently at 76.50 + / -, to be about 99.50 + / -  by 2013.

What does this mean for commodities? The U.S. dollar has an inverse correlation with some commodities and stock market indices (equities).

So lets see,

Oil: The oil should keep falling the rising dollar. So we should see oil prices much lower than it currently is. The WTI is currently around 84.00, will rise to 90.50 approx. and then it should begin to fall again. Quite possibly we will see a barrel priced @ USD50.00 in a few years.

Gold: Gold is the current bubble. After reaching 1920 points and being considered the safe harbor, gold presents itself with  a huge MACD divergence on the weekly chart. This divergence should lead to a minimum target of 1043.900 in the upcoming years.  George Soros, not surprinsingly,  bought spot Gold as well as companies that exploit gold a few years ago. Soros sold most of his investments in gold by July / August this year. Needless to mention that Gold is also inversely related to the USD.

Silver: Almost a twin of Gold. We must also see Silver much lower in the coming years.

This will reflect directly in stocks related to commodities in Brazil for example. We should note, for example, significant drop in stocks of Petrobras and Vale in the coming years.  

The recommendation is to go short selling in the commodity spot corrections and also the papers linked to the commodity itself.

That is, when we look at the DOW @ 11,700 and oil above 90.00, the USDX at 76.00, you can indulge yourself short selling (short selling) Oil, Gold, Silver, Petrobras and Vale with good leverage. Conservative stops above the highs of the day, week or month depending on your risk appetite.

As stated before, the USD and other assets are in for a short-term correction. The minimum targets for these corrections are  already within reach. Possibly this could happen Monday. Let's look closely at the market at the beginning of next week.

Once they are reached , these targets should resume the dollar uptrend, the decline in stocks and commodities in the long run.

Cheers to all.

;-)
 

mcapitalmarkets's Page

Latest Activity

mcapitalmarkets posted a blog post

#Majors - Change In The Direction of The Main Move and Criticism

THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 22, 2011Cable has changed the direction of the main move of the year (MMOTY) today. Euro should follow soon as well as the other majors. When this happens, usually there is some extension expected. In this case favoring the bullish USD. AUDUSD also broke a very impotant supportive trend line and is heading to change the MMOTY.Elsewhere, USDx is about to reach a bullish MACD must-reach target @ 78.86. As mentioned quite a few times during…See More
Sep 22, 2011
mcapitalmarkets commented on James Chen, CTA, CMT's blog post Gold Extends Pullback within Strong Bullish Trend
"1670 is a must short term."
Sep 15, 2011
mcapitalmarkets commented on Andrei Tratseuski's blog post AUD/USD Could Stand to Lose More Ground
"Simply looking at the technicals, yes."
Aug 13, 2011
mcapitalmarkets commented on mcapitalmarkets's blog post #EURUSD Outlook (Diamond Pattern)
"Not my favorite drawing. But yes, a high percentage formation and not obvious to the average eye/average trader. However, on actual trading, there is way more than just a geometrical form."
Aug 12, 2011
Trebs Acre commented on mcapitalmarkets's blog post #EURUSD Outlook (Diamond Pattern)
"I like this drawing. It seems like your favorite subject is geometry. I expect not so wide range swings today and the diamond may hold at least until this week."
Aug 12, 2011
mcapitalmarkets commented on Vladimir Mihaylov's blog post EUR/USD forecast 11.08.2011
"Regarding EU, the pair is inside a very symmetrical diamond formation.  Likely to breakout south. Also inside an ascending channel. If the channels lower TL gets taken out, 1.23 becomes a must-reach."
Aug 11, 2011
mcapitalmarkets commented on Vladimir Mihaylov's blog post EUR/USD forecast 11.08.2011
"Gold broke down a rising wedge and also it has a gap left from the beginning of the week  that has to be covered from the beginning of the week, nothing special there. However, I might risk and say that we could possibly have seen the top of…"
Aug 11, 2011
mcapitalmarkets posted a blog post

#ES and #EDJI Technical Pictures

THURSDAY, AUGUST 11, 2011#ES and #EDJI Technical PicturesIt seems like we are going to see some more slide in the equity markets pretty soon.The S&P 500 e-mini is showing the index inside a triangle formation in the 30-60 min time frames. The main diagonal is pointing up. Therefore it suggests it being a continuation pattern.Pretty much the same can be said abot the e-DJI. We could see the future index as low as 9750 points sooner than expected.I wouldn't…See More
Aug 11, 2011
mcapitalmarkets commented on mcapitalmarkets's blog post #EURUSD Outlook (Diamond Pattern)
"By the way, the low of the week was taken out during yesterdays session. Long stops were taken out thus suggesting a short term continued move down. We still have monthly and weekly main move both down."
Aug 11, 2011
mcapitalmarkets commented on mcapitalmarkets's blog post #EURUSD Outlook (Diamond Pattern)
"Looks beautiful on daily. Very symmetrical."
Aug 11, 2011
Trebs Acre commented on mcapitalmarkets's blog post #EURUSD Outlook (Diamond Pattern)
"Looks like the diamond is holding.  "
Aug 11, 2011
mcapitalmarkets posted a blog post

#AUDUSD Long Term Outlook

Wednesday, August 10, 2011#AUDUSD Long Term OutlookThis pair has perhaps the most exciting technical picture at the moment.After reaching historic highs, the aussie reached and bounced from a trend line (to the pip) observed on the weekly/monthly charts. Just draw a line connecting the highs of 2004/2008/2011. On the other hand, I also ask you to draw a descending TL extending from the lows of 2004/2008 and projecting on. This should be enough to give you the…See More
Aug 10, 2011
mcapitalmarkets commented on mcapitalmarkets's blog post #EURUSD Outlook (Diamond Pattern)
"Bear in mind the high of the week so far as well as the high of the month. If and when those levels are taken out, than further expansion north could/should be observed.  "
Aug 10, 2011
mcapitalmarkets commented on Andrei Tratseuski's blog post AUD/USD Could Stand to Lose More Ground
"Hi Andrei,   This pair has perhaps the most exciting technical picture  at the moment. After making a historic highs, it reached an ascending trend line (to the pip) observed on the weekly/monthly charts. Just draw a line connecting the…"
Aug 10, 2011
Trebs Acre commented on mcapitalmarkets's blog post #EURUSD Outlook (Diamond Pattern)
"Thanks, I think a 4-hour close above 1.44 would push price to 1.46 level. If not, 1.40 will be tested."
Aug 9, 2011
mcapitalmarkets commented on mcapitalmarkets's blog post #EURUSD Outlook (Diamond Pattern)
"There's a resisting trend line that is being tested/validated as I type this. A break of this line, will most-likely mean an upward move for the EURO. However, Main move of the month, of the week and of the day (so far) are ALL down."
Aug 9, 2011

Profile Information

About Myself
I am a Forex and CFDs professional trader with a profound trading experience. My trading system relies basically on statistical analysis to provide high probability trades. Trend following gives the extra support. Apart from only taking high probability-like trades, my method limits risk by only performing those trades with no less than a 1:2.5 Risk/Reward ratio and risking a maximum of 30 pips per trade. Money management is inversely proportional to the probability of each trade reaching its initial profit target. This systematic approach provides for a boisterous trading regimen. My system doesn't rely on any fundamental analysis. From time to time, I will be offering my views of the market for short, mid and long-term time-frames.
Trading style
Trend Follower, Probability and patterns.
Current Broker
FxPro

Mcapitalmarkets's Blog

#Majors - Change In The Direction of The Main Move and Criticism

Posted on September 22, 2011 at 6:22pm 1 Comment

THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 22, 2011

Cable has changed the direction of the main move of the year (MMOTY) today. Euro should follow soon as well as the other majors. When…
Continue

#ES and #EDJI Technical Pictures

Posted on August 11, 2011 at 11:07pm 0 Comments

THURSDAY, AUGUST 11, 2011

#ES and #EDJI Technical Pictures

It seems like we are going to see some more slide in the equity markets pretty soon.



The S&P…
Continue

#AUDUSD Long Term Outlook

Posted on August 10, 2011 at 6:54pm 0 Comments

Wednesday, August 10, 2011

#AUDUSD Long Term Outlook

This pair has perhaps the most exciting technical picture at the…
Continue

#EURUSD Outlook (Diamond Pattern)

Posted on August 8, 2011 at 6:30pm 10 Comments

Monday, August 8, 2011

#EURUSD Outlook (Diamond Pattern)…

Continue

Comment Wall (1 comment)

At 6:15pm on July 29, 2011, kaushal baid said…
do you own any gold?  have you ever come across a gold/dow  or aoil /gold  or a treasury yield chart/'///?

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