Brian Twomey
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Brian Twomey's Page

Profile Information

About Myself
Author Inside the Currency Market, 11 year trader
Trading style
Short, Long term
Current Broker
Many

EUR/JPY

Comment Wall (8 comments)

At 4:28pm on February 20, 2015, Surjya said…

Thought I would share some of my thoughts with you.

Today (20 Feb 2015) EUR/USD went down to 1.1280 and has revert back upwards to 1.1370. USD/JPY also went down to 118.30 and then revert back upwards to 118.52. Since EUR/USD went down it meant that euro was weak against the dollar and dollar was strong. Also USD/JPY going down meant that dollar was weak against the yen and yen was strong. What I am properly not able to grasp is how come dollar be strong and weak at the same time. When EU went down I expected UJ to go up but it didn't. From this I find that each pair is to be handled separately and not try to find any correlation with another. I remember in a post of yours where you had mentioned about it and had given an example of AUD/USD and NZD/USD as both being very different. Such movements tend to confuse the amateur trader. Such movements may won't be problem for long term traders but for intraday traders the pairs have moved quite a lot in one direction.

At 6:13am on February 21, 2015, Brian Twomey said…

Hi Surjya,  You can't view currency pairs as one pair goes up then the other must come down. And you can't generally view currency pairs as weak or strong V the US dollar. The EUR/USD can drop 100 pips but GBP/USD drops only 50 pips. How can EUR be stronger than GBP. What if EUR/USD drops 100, GBP drops 50 but USD/JPY rises 25 pips. Why didn't USD/JPY rise 100 or rise 50 pips to match GBP/USD. If USD/JPY had a price of 1.1300 then mayb it would match exactly the 100 pip EUR drop. You are correct Surjya to handle each pair and each pair's price different from each other because no two pairs are the same. Each currency pair has a different price structure, each pair's movements are impacted by different factors and each pair's prices won't have exact pip movements as each other. So to look at currency pairs as weak or strong is okay but its not a trade strategy that will have constant profits. NZD/USD and AUD/USD are very similar but each won't share exact pip movements nor will EUR/USD and GBP/USD nor will USD/JPY and USD/CHF. Correlations can be viewed in each pair, that's a good strategy. Then you know which pairs will move with and counter to each other. Correlations doesn't reveal how far movements will occur but it tells how strong or weak is the relationship between and among the pairs. Hope I helped Sutjya

At 6:54am on February 21, 2015, Surjya said…

Thanks Brian ...... although I am earning pips, still have a lot to learn.

At 1:33pm on March 2, 2015, KMK said…

Brain why you are so sure about no rate cut by RBA

At 2:10pm on March 2, 2015, Brian Twomey said…

In Australia, the 90 day interest rate warns 5 days before if an interest rate change will occur, currently that rate is saying no change. If a rate cut occurs, it comes as a surprise to the markets. My call is based on the 90 day rate, no change. The analysts at Societe General also posted the same call. Will we get a surprise cut, I don't know. Its not priced into the markets. Does the RBA have alternatives and cut anyway, I can't know that. Based on market prices, it shows no change. 

At 1:22am on May 28, 2015, Mrs.Abiola Bawuah said…

Good Day,
How is everything with you, I picked interest on you after going through your short profile and deemed it necessary to write you immediately. I have something very vital to disclose to you, but I found it difficult to express myself here, since it's a public site.Could you please get back to me on:(mrs.bawuahabiola147@gmail.com) for the full details.

Have a nice day
Thanks God bless.
Mrs.Abiola Bawuah.

At 7:20am on October 14, 2015, BA said…

Brian- the interest rates were .1420 on 2015-10-09 and now we see the eurusd at 1.1416- (today aon Oct 14th- - is this the correct analysis of the interest rates? Next level say .134 so we should see the pair drop to that level?

Thx again....

At 9:46am on October 14, 2015, Brian Twomey said…

Hi BA yes the analysis is correct however its just the beginning

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Brian Twomey's Blog

Inside the Currency Market: EUR, GBP Pairs Bunches of Pairs

Posted on May 27, 2015 at 11:01am 3 Comments

  No recent posts due to an intense, info filled, comprehensive article for FX Trader Magazine site on upcoming RBNZ June 11. Cut or on hold for RBNZ is found predominately in CPI Inflation Tradables Vs Inflation Non Tradables. This relationship historically since 1985 NZD Free Float is seriously deficient and misaligned. How this corrects is a mystery unless New Zealand Exports their way out or maybe the world rights itself.  But Tradable deficiency caused Import and Export prices…

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EUR/USD, German and USD 10 and 2 Year Yields

Posted on May 18, 2015 at 1:13pm 32 Comments

 

                   EUR/USD Vs German Yields 10's and 2's and USD 10's and 2's

 The USD 2 year yield currently trades in a larger range between 1.671- 0.395, both encompass the 5 and 10 year averages at both range extremes. The current price at 0.54 sits just above the 1 year average at 0.537 while below is the 2 year average at 0.445. Both the 1 and 2 year averages crossed above the 5 year at 0.39 so within the larger 10 and 5 year range is found the 1 and 2…

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Inside the Currency Market: EUR/USD , DXY

Posted on May 10, 2015 at 1:15am 53 Comments

 DXY. I and 2 year averages are found at 89.71 and 85.26, neither are overbought and targets 95.76 and 91.48. Both averages are holding DXY. Next, 3 and 4 year averages at 83.93 and 82.46 begins the way overbought view. Then averages from 5 - 10 years all at various intervals at 81's are equally overbought. The DXY is overbought in 5 and 10 year averages as much as EUR/USD is oversold at both averages. 

 Targets from 3 - 10 year averages range from 89.40 ( 3 year), 88.0 ( 4Y),…

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Inside the Currency Market: Non Farm Payrolls

Posted on May 8, 2015 at 11:24am 16 Comments

  NFP last month was 126 and 264 March. Both were very preliminary for the year. NFP based on 10 year data is highly oversold. 126 from last month is literally on the bottom. 

10 year average = 66.19, 5 year = Negative 498.88, 2 year = 191.37, 1 year = 208.83. Range = 66.19 - 191. 10 year Median = 146.  Entire 10 year range 220 or 110 on a high / low basis. 110 + 126 = 230 forecast. All numbers in thousands. If I add 10 year average 66.19 to 110, 176 is the…

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