No recent posts due to an intense, info filled, comprehensive article for FX Trader Magazine site on upcoming RBNZ June 11. Cut or on hold for RBNZ is found predominately in CPI Inflation Tradables Vs Inflation Non Tradables. This relationship historically since 1985 NZD Free Float is seriously deficient and misaligned. How this corrects is a mystery unless New Zealand Exports their way out or maybe the world rights itself. But Tradable deficiency caused Import and Export prices…Continue
EUR/USD Vs German Yields 10's and 2's and USD 10's and 2's
The USD 2 year yield currently trades in a larger range between 1.671- 0.395, both encompass the 5 and 10 year averages at both range extremes. The current price at 0.54 sits just above the 1 year average at 0.537 while below is the 2 year average at 0.445. Both the 1 and 2 year averages crossed above the 5 year at 0.39 so within the larger 10 and 5 year range is found the 1 and 2…Continue
DXY. I and 2 year averages are found at 89.71 and 85.26, neither are overbought and targets 95.76 and 91.48. Both averages are holding DXY. Next, 3 and 4 year averages at 83.93 and 82.46 begins the way overbought view. Then averages from 5 - 10 years all at various intervals at 81's are equally overbought. The DXY is overbought in 5 and 10 year averages as much as EUR/USD is oversold at both averages.
Targets from 3 - 10 year averages range from 89.40 ( 3 year), 88.0 ( 4Y),…Continue
NFP last month was 126 and 264 March. Both were very preliminary for the year. NFP based on 10 year data is highly oversold. 126 from last month is literally on the bottom.
10 year average = 66.19, 5 year = Negative 498.88, 2 year = 191.37, 1 year = 208.83. Range = 66.19 - 191. 10 year Median = 146. Entire 10 year range 220 or 110 on a high / low basis. 110 + 126 = 230 forecast. All numbers in thousands. If I add 10 year average 66.19 to 110, 176 is the…Continue