As I said in the previous forecast of NZDUSD, the pair faced a firm barrier at 0.8100 and lost its upward momentum for several days. NZDUSD has then climbed again after bottoming at 0.7740, and it is aiming to test the 0.8100 resistance the second time.
So, what's next for NZDUSD? To predict the future of NZDUSD, we have to look at the general tone of the forex market where EURUSD always plays a key role. I think EURUSD is not ripe enough for a sharp drop right in this week. The momentum of EURUSD still remains upward, and there will still be some room for EURUSD to push up a little bit. In a situation that NZD, AUD, CAD, GBP... have fallen so much against USD, any slight rise of EURUSD will provide a ground for these currencies to rally, perhaps very hard.
In conclusion, my forecast is that EURUSD will go up slightly, or at least move sideways this week. This brings a good condition for NZDUSD to break through the 0.8100 barrier.
What do you think when looking at the weekly chart of NZD/USD? The pair has bounced up from the trend line of a multiple-month uptrend. So, there is a great possibility that this bounce is the start of an upward marathon. Remember, NZD as a commodity currency has a very typical characteristic of commodity family: once it actually rallies, it will keep climbing non-stop for a very long period (no one want to sell the currency due to its sweet interests).
Let’s zoom in to the daily chart. With naked eyes solely, we can still observe that NZD/USD just wants to go up. However, please notice that NZD/USD is approaching a considerable resistance at 0.81, where the upward momentum of the pair may pause temporarily for several days.
Let’s look at the big picture of EUR/GBP – monthly chart. You will easily find that the pair has been struggling at a sensitive zone for 6 months, yes I mean half a year. Why does it take EUR/GBP so much time at this zone? Because this is the upper edge of a multiple-year downward trend, with huge resistance accompanied. The market rule is very simple: if a pair cannot manage to go up, it will have to drop. Therefore, I see an imminent lasting downtrend for EUR/GBP, which will be solidly confirmed if the candle of this month closes as a doji.
Let’s zoom in the daily chart. EUR/GBP has reacted very fiercely after touching the 76.4 Fibonacci level as shown the figure below. The pair has fallen for 4 consecutive days. Because of this sharp drop, we have evidence to think that the previous upward move of the pair is just a temporary retracement; and after the retracement is an actual downtrend.
Explanations of popular forex terminology are given as follows.
Equity – the secure part of the client account, considering the open positions, bound with the balance and floating rate (profit/loss) by the following formula: Balance + Floating rate + Swap, i.e. the funds on the client account less the current amount for the open positions, plus the current earnings for the open positions.
Free margin – the funds, which are not used for the security of the opened positions. It is calculated by the formula: Free Margin = Equity – Margin.
Margin – The required equity that an investor must deposit to collateralize a position equal to 1% (when leverage = 1:100) of an open position deposit.
Margin level – determines the condition of an account. Calculated according to the formula: (Equity / Margin) * 100%.
Base currency – currency unit in which an account, balances, commission fees and payments are designated and calculated.
Balance – the total financial result of all fully executed transactions and deposits/withdrawals to/from an account.
Broker – the firm that provides crediting services and trader support.
Bulls – traders that count on currency rate escalation.
Bull market – market that tends toward escalating rates.
Currency pair – The two currencies that make up a foreign exchange rate. For Example, EUR/USD.
Rising trend – every time the highest value of a curve appears, compared to previous rate values. The lowest curve points are connected by a straight line – trend line.…