The common theme among Friday's closing prices is all pairs closed 2 or 3 pips above or below critical range prices. USD/CHF at present 0.8910 is 2 pips below its upper range price at 0.8912. A break above 0.8912 the range becomes 0.8912 - 0.9019 with an average line at 0.8965 that must break higher to see a test and possible break of 0.9019. Above 0.9019 sees next 0.9195. The wider CHF range lies between 0.8548 - 0.8965. Current CHF prices are more oversold than EUR/USD is…Continue
I spent much time looking at EUR/USD so with hope, the week to finally get short is here. Many reasons.
1.The ECB cut the Refi Rate but short European rates are exactly where they traded just before the rate cut. Short rates are defeating the ECB purpose and holding the exchange rate at high levels. My side bar issue is all central banks now maintain Interest rates within small rate channels to control their currency price at desired levels and limit volatility to further…Continue
EUR/CAD. Now approaching critical juncture at 1.4558 and 1.4568. At current 1.4497, the test and failure in my observation is approaching. If EUR/USD goes short so too does EUR/CAD since both are the exact same pair. A fail at 4458 and 4468 should bring us easily 1.4361 for now, for now as I calculate the new day.
GBP/USD. Over 1 week ago, my post reported UK market prices hit critical juncture but failed to break below so GU bounced as expected. UK market prices broke…Continue
Regarding Long EUR/USD positions, I have serious problems.
1. Friday's long red hourly candle I see as warning to longs. 2. European interest rates jumped 1 full point Friday in the wrong direction. Last time this occured was May and the EUR/USD corrected down 400 pips in two weeks from 1.3200's to 1.2800. 3. Fair Value based on European yield spreads equates to 1.3372 as of Friday. 4. My distribution of MA averages places EUR/USD at 1.3323. EUR/USD in 1.3600's even 1.3700…Continue