Arenoosh
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Latest Activity

Arenoosh posted a blog post

How much is too much?

While most of us were enjoying the weekend, Mario Draghi – the ECB president – hold a press conference in Washington DC. The key of his statement was that a further strengthening of the euro exchange rate would require more loosening in the European Central Bank's monetary policy to keep the overall policy stance as accommodative as it is now. This is the reason for the today’s eur/usd gap.As usual, he gave no numbers, no thresholds to guide us to understand how much is too much. "I have always…See More
Apr 14, 2014
talisman commented on Arenoosh's blog post Show me the money !
"good observation"
Apr 1, 2014
Arenoosh commented on Arenoosh's blog post GBP/USD diverging from EUR/USD
"Thank you all for your comments. Indy - as I said it in my article - it might be too early to call a top for eur/usd as the divergence is only at the beginning. However, I do not think 1.4100 will be hit any time soon. In my opinion, the top will be…"
Mar 19, 2014
Dominik T. Dolinar commented on Arenoosh's blog post GBP/USD diverging from EUR/USD
"I'm with Indy on this one.. i too believe that eu will pop higher than everyone is expecting, followed by big reversal, but all shorts above 1.41 will be very profitable"
Mar 19, 2014
Indy commented on Arenoosh's blog post GBP/USD diverging from EUR/USD
"how about a quick pop up to 1.41 or slightly higher, to reinforce bullish sentiment, then a big dive down to 1.31? Regards Indy"
Mar 19, 2014
talisman commented on Arenoosh's blog post GBP/USD diverging from EUR/USD
"i think you ve written an intriguing and interesting article.  not sure how tradable this information is but its an interesting observation none the less, thx"
Mar 18, 2014
Arenoosh posted a blog post

The Island of Stability

For more than one month, I build a strong case for shorting the euro, bringing many fundamentals to support my idea, as also some technical patterns who were suggesting that it “might work”. I, as many other traders, were waiting for Mr Draghi to pull the trigger during his press conference, yesterday. However, something really strange happened yesterday morning, six hours before the ECB press conference: the euro-bund dropped from 144.67 till 142.45. How is it possible to sell so aggressively…See More
Mar 7, 2014
Arenoosh posted a blog post

Are we back to the "risk off" sentiment?

In the last few days, I tried to understand better the Crimea conflict and mostly why Putin sent his Panzers there. Asking around, I got this answer:A Frenchman, a German and a Russian were bragging about their countries.The Frenchman: we have modern cars. We use Renault to travel in France and the Peugeot when we go outside of France.The German: we have modern cars too. We use Volkswagen when we travel in Germany and Mercedes when we go out.The Russian: we also use different brands when we…See More
Mar 4, 2014
Srinivas dev commented on Arenoosh's blog post Eur/Usd: secondary bullish trend in main bearish trend
"that is good and this euro  bund where can we get more  information and  could you  explain  further"
Feb 20, 2014
Arenoosh posted a blog post

Corn Futures breaks a strong resistance

On 10th of January, we had the first NFP of 2014 and everyone was focusing on those numbers missing the real news of that Friday: the US Department of Agriculture cut its estimate for US corn production and separate data showed corn stocks at a level that was less than expected. In addition, the US farmers unexpectedly reduced winter-wheat and winter-corn seeded acreage. Three days later, I wrote a wide analysis, published on my blog, about these two assets suggesting, to go long the corn and…See More
Feb 20, 2014
George Sofianos commented on Arenoosh's blog post The desire of gold is not for gold
"Thanks arenoosh, of course the drop in prices of gold is for the hawks to buy cheaper, if someone doesnt understand this is idiot...the correction that started in 2011 comes to an end with the 61,8% retracement in 1178 (2001-2011) most likely to be…"
Feb 11, 2014
Arenoosh commented on Arenoosh's blog post Who's next?
"Thank you Daologic"
Jan 31, 2014
Arenoosh commented on Arenoosh's blog post Black January on Wall Street ?
"Glider, every nation has his own issues. The common problem that all the EM have is the account deficit financed with dollars - cheap dollars. All the EM used the cheap dollar to finance their deficits but some of them took the measures they…"
Jan 27, 2014
Arenoosh posted a blog post

Black January on Wall Street ?

I usually try to anticipate what the market is up to and send my thoughts to you but this time I needed to see if Thursday’s drop in the stock market was an ordinary thing or the investors will panic and sell more the next day. Last year, the S&P500 never had a 3% drop in one single day. I don’t think we can consider this as an ordinary move.Argentina, Peru, Turkey was the most hit emerging markets but even Mexico, South Africa or other emerging economies seen their currency losing value.…See More
Jan 27, 2014
talisman commented on Arenoosh's blog post The best risk/reward trade for 2014
"  "  We all know that the market is not perfect and being right in the wrong moment is just not being right at all." I like how you put that, so so true. "
Jan 4, 2014
teddy commented on Arenoosh's blog post The best risk/reward trade for 2014
"Alright, thanks, i will do some further reading"
Jan 4, 2014

Profile Information

About Myself
I am an avid follower of the markets and I began my activity as an investor in the stock market a few years ago and then moved into the Forex market 2 years later drove by the higher potential that the FX global market offers.
My economic studies, previous banking experience and mostly being first a stock market investor made its mark on my trading style as, in an area where most of the players are day-traders, looking at the smaller time frame charts, I make my trades based on an accurate macroeconomic analysis and looking mostly at daily/weekly charts.
I apply with success in the Forex, theories, indicators and my own systems which was ideated and created for the stock market as the Dow Theory or Marc Chaikin’s indicator. My analysis and trading ideas are not limited on the foreign exchange market but I try to trade any opportunity that the market offers as commodities, stocks, indexes, ETF and other instruments.
Trading style
Fundamental
Current Broker
Caesar Trade

Arenoosh's Blog

Bleeding USD

Posted on May 7, 2014 at 8:03am 0 Comments

Looking at the events for Tuesday, 06 May 2014, we would have expected to see a normal, quiet trading day. Early in the morning, (for European traders) the RBA was announcing that they decided to maintain the official interest rate unchanged at 2.5%. A few new words in their statement were actually saying the same thing as the last statement said. In my opinion, from this point of view, there were no reasons to quit building long Aussie dollar positions.

If Tuesday would have been a…

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The Backstreet Boys of the Financial Markets

Posted on April 24, 2014 at 8:11pm 0 Comments

Mario Draghi, Shinzo Abe, Haruhiko Kuroda, Mark Carney and Ben Bernanke* are what I call the Backstreet Boys of the Financial Markets. *Janet Yellen is new and she did nothing ‘till now to deserve a place in this music band.

Mario Draghi

In the last 2 years, the ECB enjoyed the cheapest monetary policy, thanks to Mario Draghi’s magic words “whatever it takes”. While FED, BoE or BoJ had to print money to “save” their economies, investors bought Europe based on the safety…

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How much is too much?

Posted on April 14, 2014 at 6:16am 0 Comments

While most of us were enjoying the weekend, Mario Draghi – the ECB president – hold a press conference in Washington DC. The key of his statement was that a further strengthening of the euro exchange rate would require more loosening in the European Central Bank's monetary policy to keep the overall policy stance as accommodative as it is now. This is the reason for the today’s eur/usd gap.

As usual, he gave no numbers, no thresholds to guide us to understand how much is too much. "I…

Continue

Show me the money !

Posted on April 1, 2014 at 10:22am 1 Comment

Have you ever seen the movie “Jerry Maguire”? If you didn’t, you should! That’s a damn good movie. My favourite scene is when he is yelling in his office: “SHOW ME THE MONEY”!!!

This is…

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Comment Wall (1 comment)

At 10:21pm on March 23, 2014, Joe Lanburner said…

Some interesting blog posts.

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