Isn't this a beauty ! Nice trend contained by the 20EMA. Good looking pin bar, price bouncing off the monthly pivot.

Views: 137

Comment by talisman on January 4, 2014 at 7:20pm

happy new year oasis.  that does look good.  the break of 103.5 certainly puts me in a longer term bullish mindset.  not sure what your horizons on this trade would be but something that concerns me is that breaking 103.50 was done within a 600 plus pip move up with very small retracements.  statistically it is uncommon for moves over 600 pips to continue significantly higher without a bit of a larger retracement even though the overall direction maybe higher.  just playing the devils advocate for the sake of discussion of course.

myself I am excpecting a move back down to the 103 area before a resumption of the up trend and am planning to trade it that way on shorter time frames like the one hour.

good luck, and I hope those nasty freezing rains didn't screw u up to bad in your neck of the woods over christmas

Comment by Oasis on January 5, 2014 at 1:46am

Hi Talisman, Best wishes for the new year to you as well. That freezing rain was really something as you must have heard.

This trade does look interesting. What you are thinking about the recent moves is so true and yes we would love to buy this pair at low 103's. But this is not what I am seeing, which is:

1) A rather non volatile uptrend that began on 08 Nov. Price has not even touched 20EMA since then. What I mean is that the bears are not able to make much ground and not for long.

2) A significant retracement has just been completed.

3) The most recent swing low is 103.766 (23 Dec). Until that low is not clearly broken, my bias will remain to the long side.

So, my thinking is to stay long. We are really in unchartered territory really (about 5 years) so not sure of anything. If indeed the pair keeps going up, then my play would be not to put a target but keep moving my stop below each subsequent swing low as it forms using H4 for this. At some point this s/l will hit. If however 103.50 is reached, then the uptrend is over at least in the short term and i'll have to wait for the next signal to go long or short as the case may be. 


Comment by talisman on January 5, 2014 at 2:32am

sounds good, have fun.

Comment by talisman on January 14, 2014 at 2:31am

hi oasis. not sure if you re still watching this pair. it did move down to just below 103 which was a reasonable short against the larger bull trend back when we we first started looking at this.  it currently sits in a transition zone, up or down is anybodys guess and it is reasonable to trade it either way now with an expectation that you should cut your losses if it does the opposite of whatever you want.  I remain short , but longs now are reasonable as well. 

Comment by Oasis on January 15, 2014 at 8:03pm

Hi talisman, Sorry I did not see your comment until now. I guess I developed tunnel vision and the move down stopped me out. I understand you were short and hope that you made some nice pips before this V formation took shape. 

I did recover some pips on the recent move up today and will look to see what is happening at about 7EST.



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