Comment by Peter jcp on October 18, 2012 at 6:09pm

Hi Leon - I think its because the markets are slow and quiet. Even my tick charts are like watching paint dry at times ;-). Everyday though I pop into the Forexmosgate group and work with 3-10 regular guys on live trades etc on main pairs.

Unfortunately since September my trading times have change slightly due to my children being at different a school/ college. I am sharing some of the "taxing" and generally miss London Open and an hr before London close. Normally I trade at least 5 hrs a day at peak times and some days my window will take in over 10 hrs- a lot of scalps as sometimes i can get 3 an hour ;-)

Looking forward to Lisa and Sir Gissa back as well as they normally inspire me to do more comments / blogs etc.

i hope even in these uncertain trading times you trading is doing well and that you are having a good October. All the best Leon and thanks for those kind words

Regards

Peter 

Comment by Peter jcp on October 18, 2012 at 6:36pm

That's better - nice slow fall last hr - but in last 15 mins both GU and EU drops made in total over 60 pips on the tick charts. I suppose worth waiting for ;-))

Comment by Romano on October 18, 2012 at 6:42pm

Hi Peter, would u mind telling me how you differentiate between true short where price really go down as on this chart and another moving average whipsaw where price could just cross back up? thnx

Comment by Peter jcp on October 18, 2012 at 7:30pm

Hi Romano - yes - I will try and explain briefly the method behind my scalping and the problem of being caught in a "whipsaw"

Firstly i try and split every session down in too one hr periods - as all one hr candles change at the same time. I will look at the daily and 4 hr for the bigger picture for main S & R and trend lines  etc.

Then I will judge whether the pair is OB or OS on the hourly - using various tools such as a RSI and tight BB's . Either side of the hour change I will watch my tick charts and look for my Linear regressions and parabolics / Ma's to cross to show signs of a change in bias.

In scalping even a 3-5 pip opposite movement can be the start of a change of bias.

Its then a case of looking at the minor S & R's ( and fibs) to watch whether they hold of break.

If i see a waterfall effect on a tick with a minor S& R broken then very good chance of a trade and a move over 10 pips.

All my stops are 4 -8 pips but hidden and i use one click in and out.

My ideal scalps will last 10 -30 mins and i will look for 10 -30+ pips. If the movement is only say 5 or 7 pips - I will exit and not hold. If its over 20 pips I will leave part stake on 25-40% with stop still in profit but over 15 pips/

If I do say 10 scalps - on a good day 1-3 wrong with exits either break even or max 8 pip loss.

Then the other 7 good trades at least 1 or 2 will do over 20 pips most days - some days even 100 pips and my RR can be massive at 15 or 20.

On a really busy day over 12 hrs i will watch the charts say every hr for 5 -20 mins and might take up to 20 trades. I can even have 5 bad trades - but 2 good ones put me in profit.

The key is tight stops - not bothering about being wrong and experience of reading the tick chart and not being bias about whether its a Bull or Bear day.

I miss lots of longer trades - but as long as i can now maintain over 50 pips a day - I am very happy.

Guys in the gate group will tell you we can basically follow every pip most sessions - we still will get a few bad trades - but normally we know within 5 pips and say 2-5 minutes. Timing is all important and of course matching it all up to see the small wave pictures in your head of what might develop.

If you ask me to forecast next week - i will be useless or no better than most. But at key times and prices I will be good at next 10 mins to an hr. Remember my scalp S & R's are so different to the main 4 hr and daily ones - but sometimes - they can be as powerful.

Hope that helps and if you want to join a few of us in the gate group you are welcome whilst we do calls on main pairs during London and first half of US session

Regards 

Peter

Comment by Peter jcp on October 18, 2012 at 8:07pm

Ideally Leon - we started it to help any traders who had some experience and wanted to share and learn more. I know we have some guys with less than 6 months behind them- but they have showed willingness to study and learn etc etc, 

I don't think completely new traders should join us - as they need to understand the basics via FX education pages on FX Street and Baby pips etc and have at least 3 months on a demo etc.

We have probably 10 guys in the gate with over 3/5+ yrs experience and many with 1 - 3 years - who we can then help more. Out of our 66 members we have never seen more than 20 in gate chat and most days we might only have 3-10 during the main two sessions

I know from before in the main chat - i would confuse many new traders with scalp trades and it worried me that some on live account would soon blow their accounts. I think once they have 3-6 months behind them then they can move forward more and start to understand the trading day

Guys like Gissa and Pixta can trade all different ways - and even swing traders find my scalp entries and exits interesting as it can assist them with stops etc 

All types of traders are welcome - but they do need the basics and the experience of making both winning and losing trades over a period of 3-6 months minimum. Most important then is wanting to learn with an open mind and then to put the study and effort in to succeed.

Regards 

Peter

Comment by Peter jcp on October 19, 2012 at 6:37am

Here is another example Romano at the European Opening at 7am UK ( 2am NY). We have a high - and then a LH - and a waterfall effect. As I mention - a strong possibility of a drop - but will it be 5 pip - or 10 pips or even 100 pips etc etc. That's all down to time and supports really and if they hold or not , In this case in total of 15 pips within 30 mins of which 10 -13 pips are trade able with the  mental stop of 5 pips moved to high after entry. A fixed solid stop can be entered 10 -20 pips higher in case of a disaster but this would just be a safe guard as with short term trades you watch and one click.

Result RR of 2+ in less than 30 mins. Do 10 of those - or even just 3 a day and you would be very happy if using 2% stake ;-)

Have a good day

Regards 

Peter

Comment by Romano on October 19, 2012 at 8:31am

Hi Peter, thanks man.

You said u use tick chart, may I ask at what settings? Because my broker allow me to set up to 100ticks max per bar only, right now when I trade tick I do with 100. Also, any specific reason for as many MAs and especially fancy ones like linear regression over standard SMA or EMA? Dont you anyway take trade only once price is under/above all of them - so that only slovest should be needed(or 2 since u need to see cross)? Parabolic MA, is it same as SAR, couse I have only that but I do have linear regression here. What period those MAs are?

From your last example, where you painted arrow for short position - seem like exact spot when sharp up-move happened, so it seems like you took short *after* that nice waterfall already happened? - although yes price then returned back down.

And how about exit - because thats even more important on tick charts: I had many times good catch where I correctly figured move but its difficult to differentiate whether price will only correct and continue or reverse fully on tick charts. So do you use exact TPs after certain pips or do you wait for reverse signal from those MAs? Because u said: " If the movement is only say 5 or 7 pips" - well those can get reversed to 0 or - VERY quickly so how u know u should quit already? I saw too many times on tick chart price looked like sharp reverse only to go back and MUCH more further in my direction  - just after I closed. Or opposite, price seemed stable with only weak consolidations only to break suddenly agains me...  Now before u say, I think I do quite have an instinct on these things but tick charts are really good at screwing me :)

Comment by Peter jcp on October 19, 2012 at 9:26am

Hi Romano - I think the most important part - which I cannot show or teach - is the experience over many years and taking thousands of live trades. I have been using the tick chart for only 4 yrs with success - whereas Gissa has used it for decades and he can spot patterns and HL's and LH's etc before I spot them and act immediately etc.

Yes you can get whipsawed easily - but with the experience etc - you get to work on times and the logistics of entries and exits etc - which show on the tick. I use "time" a lot in my trading and if you notice this morning that fall on GU and EU was around an important hr change.

I prefer Linear regressions to MA's purely because they seem quicker and will go over and under price to give better crosses. I use unusual settings from as low as 30 right up to 500 and 700.

I have to adjust settings to different tick charts  but i normally need between 200 and 500 rather than say 50 and 100 ma's

I also place trendlines on the Tick to assist the linears and the parabolics are on a super quick setting with an extra 0 added.

You have to train your eyes to be looking for HL's and HH with 2 pips of each other and then match to 30 min and hourly bias changes and S & R . I reckon you need say a minimum  500 hrs watching tick charts and matching up times etc. I can even see when HFT is playing and there settings at like 3 and 7 mins etc etc

Then once you have the feel - MM is so important - work on 5-8 pip stops and go for targets of 5 -25 pips and be disciplined etc. Many scalpers get 80% trades correct and make say 3-10 pips and then have stops over 25 or 50 pips and lose all their profits ;-) 

Its also amazing how slow the tick seems to me now . Years ago it was just too fast now - it seems 70% of the time far too slow. I use a 5 or 10 second Tick - with 6- 12 moves a minute. 100 ticks a minute is too fast so try another tick chart- ie GFT or Oando and then play with it to get use to how it ties in with your 15 min and hr charts etc.

on my example I am actually entering many times before my arrows - simply due to the combination of time changes and my 30 min and 1 hr OB's or OS's. The tick chart just gives me the final confirmation of the move along with all the interim S & R's

I hope this helps and let me know how you get on etc. Also try matching entries with you normal trade entries - to see how they might differ

GL

Regards

Peter 

Comment by Romano on October 19, 2012 at 9:40am

Thanks Peter, so u use time chart as "tick" chart - 5-10 sec per bar. I use real tick chart wher 100 ticks = 1 bar, but more or less in bussy hours its about equal to 1min timeframe or so, only when it get quiet they start to differ much because timeframes get constant update of course. I already trade 1h with relatively good success but wanted also to develop tick chart sense and trade that too, in general your explaantion gave me very good insight, thank you again very much Peter. I will develop my own strategy based on this info - when i have more time. best regards

Comment