Hello all just wanted to post a trade I just entered on the monthly time frame I will keep you updated!!
Hi Trae - Although I always keep an eye on this pair - I very rarely trade it. I can see the cloud is showing good resistance and the fact that the trend last 12 months as been down it does appear that more lies ahead. However i do see further strong support at the 0.7900-40 area and therefore wondered the following.-
What targets are you looking at and how many months are you giving it ?
Your stop look approx over 0.8500 and so you are allowing at least 400 pips ?
Therefore you need to be looking under 0.7500 and so that could be 3-7 months and then the end result would only be a RR of approx 1.?
Trae - no disrespect but am I missing something here ? I hope i am wrong but I think my real question should be why?
if you over think think things peter you will never ever be involved. I have rules that I follow according to my plan, if my rules are met I get in a trade, I risk money I am comfortable loosing and have a good r/r that means i size the lot based on how much money Im willing to risk pips has nothing to do with it u can risk the same amount every single time. I really liked the monthly set up, but i used the 4hr for a good entry if you will look there is a nice pin bar set up,when all this stuff lines up for me its time too get involved. hope this helps better understand, thanks for the question
I will try and explain further the question and what I mean etc - Question -
Why take this long term trade with a 400+ pip stop on the E/G pair?
OK - if it was a yen pair I would understand more as G/J pair etc can move 1-2k pips in a few months - so RR's of 2 -4 available off a 400 pip stop. However the E/G is a small mover normally - so if you stop had been under 100 pips on a long term position trade and you were after 2-400 pip target over 1-3 months I could understand more.
Any RR under 1 or under 1.5 really are not really that good. So a 25 pip stop and a 80 pips target is far more rewarding in cash terms than a 400 pip stop and even a 1000 pip result.
Think about it - lets say a $10k account and your stake on trades is 2%
400 pip stop - stake per pip is 50 cent / half a dollar - target 1000 pips result - $500
25 pip stop - stake per pip $8 - target 80 pip result -$640.
Conclusion - why wait months for a worse result than one that can happen in less than a day ?
Now I am like you and do like an occasional monthly trades. I use lower stake than scalping - but a good position trade to me need an RR over 10. 0.5% risk on stake can be 5% reward. ie maximum 50 pip stop - looking for 500+ pip result. ( I work off smaller stops but don't expect all traders to do scalp/ swing /position).
If you are like 85% certain on longer term you probably think the stop is irrelevant. But its not - because you base what you are comfortable at loosing - and so if its 400 pips that means your stake as to be low. I appreciate once you are in the trade and up 100 pips you can start loading on more and tightening the stop. If you are planning that good luck and I wish you well that it turns out in your favour. Good trading regards Peter
Hi Trae -looks great as usual... I wish my charts were so neat - what about the chinqou span I only noticed it's not on your chart... do you not use it? Gill
Nice trade, I like how its happening with such a strong flat kumo along with a key role reversal level being broken.
I will be interested to see how this plays out but overall, based on ichimoku kumo breaks, its a solid entry. Kind Regards,Chris
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