Comment by fxretracer on May 30, 2012 at 8:21pm

the inverse h&s has probably played itself out.

Comment by fxretracer on May 30, 2012 at 8:22pm

but we need to break the support as Ben points out, before we know more.

Comment by Indy on June 9, 2012 at 11:15pm

hello Benjamin,

i noticed this channel as well, (I love channels) and it shows an interesting potential outcome, however I think Peter has a point, to me it seems TOO obvious and when something becomes too obvious it normally doesn't happen. About a month ago everyone seemed too notice and was talking about how the eu seems to bottom out in the middle of the month and rebound up again in the second half. it had done that for 4 consecutive months. talk of that was suddenly all over twitter,blogs, chatrooms etc, i don't know how many people bought eu around the 16th of may based on that, but I think quite a few, and look what happened, we got a bounce to lure in the bulls then a big drop to take them out. The point is that when something becomes too obvious i don't trust it and when everyone starts too agree its often time for the opposite to happen. just a thought,

good trading,

Indy

Comment by Benjamin on June 10, 2012 at 4:52am

Actually I don't really disagree with peter that much well other than the inverse h&s :) as I just don't like seeing shoulders that go more than say 50-65% of the head, and just eyeballing it i'd say those shoulders are aproximately 85%.

But I absolutely agree that for short term traders while it's a nice intellectual exercise to try and figure out where we're going long term the more important trend is what price has been doing in the most recent past (while ultimately my long term view will say make me more aggresive to the short side right now, I'll still take longs if that's what the immediate trend is saying).

I also agree that we're set up nicely to go either way here's my basic playbook for this next week if it starts making higher highs and higher lows in my buy zone (the channel above the 50 sma) then I'm gonna be looking to buy pullbacks up to r1 if it goes through there then i think we see 1.28. and ultimately if that doesn't hold then up to 1.30s

Conversely and actually this is more of what I'm expecting honestly, just due to the fact that my immediate term trend ( was starting to roll over and go bearish see chart 2) if on sun/mon price starts making lower lows and lower highs in my sell zone (the channel below the 50 sma) then I'll be looking to short up moves down to the s1 line and if that goes then down to the s2 and if that doesn't hold then down to 1.20s.

chart 2: the one i use to tell me what the immediate trend is

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