Comment by Peter jcp on May 30, 2012 at 5:16pm

Hi Benjamin - i dont disagree with you - as the fundi's make you think the Euro as "had it"

However technically - we are way OS and if I was a billion pound market maker -  I would take all thses shorts out for profit. That might not happen - but always remember the other side - and dont forget that inverse H & S pattern on the monthly as well :-)

Have a great June

Regards

Peter

Comment by fxretracer on May 30, 2012 at 8:21pm

the inverse h&s has probably played itself out.

Comment by fxretracer on May 30, 2012 at 8:22pm

but we need to break the support as Ben points out, before we know more.

Comment by Peter jcp on May 30, 2012 at 8:45pm

Yes -  I got the 3-4 yr inverse H & S failing at 1.2329 - and under 2280 i think then that could be forgotten based on monthly candle of Oct 2008.

Remember guys end of week - new month - Monday and Tuesday UK Banks off and then Friday NFP - put all that into the equation - and i am glad I major on short term intraday ;-)

Comment by Peter jcp on June 9, 2012 at 9:16pm

Monthly EU chart .At the end of the first full week of June we are nicely set up to go either way ;-)

Greek elections - Spanish bank bailout etc etc. Surely it can only go down?

Can I see any alternative ? - Yes.

If we can get 75%+ of retail traders and then say 40% of commercial in sells - then I can only see it trying back up - simply because that's how the game works ;-).

Do I plan to look at sells or buys? - both :--)

Because for the majority of trading days - short term intraday traders can do both. 

Meanwhile Monday and back down - and back to the other charts.

Have a great week 

Comment by Indy on June 9, 2012 at 11:15pm

hello Benjamin,

i noticed this channel as well, (I love channels) and it shows an interesting potential outcome, however I think Peter has a point, to me it seems TOO obvious and when something becomes too obvious it normally doesn't happen. About a month ago everyone seemed too notice and was talking about how the eu seems to bottom out in the middle of the month and rebound up again in the second half. it had done that for 4 consecutive months. talk of that was suddenly all over twitter,blogs, chatrooms etc, i don't know how many people bought eu around the 16th of may based on that, but I think quite a few, and look what happened, we got a bounce to lure in the bulls then a big drop to take them out. The point is that when something becomes too obvious i don't trust it and when everyone starts too agree its often time for the opposite to happen. just a thought,

good trading,

Indy

Comment by Peter jcp on June 9, 2012 at 11:46pm

Hi Indy - personally - I think studying "gameplay" is as important as being able to be great at technical analysis and reading your charts.

"Tipping the edge" and holding set ups for a few hours or even days are a great way to set the "sentiment" in the wrong direction. If the market is all selling how can the big players make their money if they want to sell more - they need to divert attention and to create false retraces etc - to take traders out of trades.

I don't know the stats on traders who are stopped out - how quickly they are prepared to take the same trade again. As mainly a scalper - it easy to keep rebuying or selling on tight stops - but if you have just lost a 150-200 pip stop - normally you are not going to go straight back in same direction with another trade within an hr - and that's the time market makers take advantage.

150 -300 pip moves in each direction with smaller waves of 30-70 pips are just great ways to interrupt trader- and of course take their money.

Depending on the Greek election result - surely the market makers will want the opportunity of a 300-600 pip move over a couple of days - "to shake things up". If they can work the results out 2-5 days in advance - they can do what happened in the UK elections when the result was a "hung parliament - 600 pip move on GU and 1000 pip move on GY - all in one day - scary or great - take your choice.:-)

Have a good week 

Peter

Comment by Benjamin on June 10, 2012 at 4:52am

Actually I don't really disagree with peter that much well other than the inverse h&s :) as I just don't like seeing shoulders that go more than say 50-65% of the head, and just eyeballing it i'd say those shoulders are aproximately 85%.

But I absolutely agree that for short term traders while it's a nice intellectual exercise to try and figure out where we're going long term the more important trend is what price has been doing in the most recent past (while ultimately my long term view will say make me more aggresive to the short side right now, I'll still take longs if that's what the immediate trend is saying).

I also agree that we're set up nicely to go either way here's my basic playbook for this next week if it starts making higher highs and higher lows in my buy zone (the channel above the 50 sma) then I'm gonna be looking to buy pullbacks up to r1 if it goes through there then i think we see 1.28. and ultimately if that doesn't hold then up to 1.30s

Conversely and actually this is more of what I'm expecting honestly, just due to the fact that my immediate term trend ( was starting to roll over and go bearish see chart 2) if on sun/mon price starts making lower lows and lower highs in my sell zone (the channel below the 50 sma) then I'll be looking to short up moves down to the s1 line and if that goes then down to the s2 and if that doesn't hold then down to 1.20s.

chart 2: the one i use to tell me what the immediate trend is

Comment by Peter jcp on June 10, 2012 at 8:55am

Excellent techs there Benjamin. Going to study both those charts to see how they compare with my different set up and update later.

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