Comment by raj patel on April 8, 2012 at 6:45pm

Hi

Any Usd  major weighted numerator

Comment by raj patel on April 8, 2012 at 7:46pm

No the dollar index will stay strong after weekness from monday till mid week then weakness will continue till  friday close

Comment by Jason on April 9, 2012 at 4:52am

Hi Raj

 

Thank you for the posting which I saw earlier.

Read with interest but cant decipher and understand the direction.

Are you saying that the USD will strengthen till midweek and then weaken again from midweek to Friday closing ?

WIll be helpful if you can clarify.

Thanks

Comment by raj patel on April 9, 2012 at 7:16am

Hi Jason, Good Morning 

Please Understand: Currency Majors have index like Usdindex, Euroindex, Gbpindex etc,etc there also futures forward contracts, Options and many more. Weighted measure of instruments is paramount to follow how a numarator/denominator operates for example: A currency does not move till its divisor or its product mutiplier moves. The Projection shows  direction  and not the amount or the range.

Comment by Jason on April 9, 2012 at 7:25am

Hi Raj

 

Thanks. That helps clear things up a little.

But of course I still have long way to learn...think you are much more well versed in the markets.

Dr Siva has also told me much about you...I used to speak with him often.

But recently he has been keeping to himself more often, dunno why...

 

Comment by raj patel on April 9, 2012 at 8:10am

Hi Spiro,

PREDICTION IS A MUGS GAME I dont predict PERIOD!!!!!. This projection is Based on Many Sensors of a Neural network  12 neurals are used as inputs to produce an out put Sine Wave.

I cannot and will not CURVE FIT the WAVE to suit the Market conditions you see what you get Right or Wrong I have to accept the result and fine tune for the future. I think for me to specify a particular instrument is WRONG. PLEASE DO NOT FORCE ME TO CURVE FIT THIS PROJECTION. IT IS NOT MENT TO DO THAT.

Comment by Peter jcp on April 9, 2012 at 9:19am

Hi Raj and Spiro - yes I think trying to predict ahead more than a small period - is a low probability / "mugs game". This is why so many of the FX street experts weekly monthly predictions etc can be up to a 1000+ pips out. Simply because nobody really knows what might happen over a longer period of time.

Its ok to say well the past helps to depict the future ( which i think is relevant ) but the unknown factors ( or suprises ) can then completely change everything. We all look upon the Euro zone being having more problems than the US - but just imagine if suddenly they find loads of oil in the Mediterranean ( In Greek waters lol) and then next month US figures are readjusted and an awful fault in the computer systems mean the US owe 300 trillion instead of whats mentioned etc etc - Imagine the effect that could have on the Euro.

So how far can you predict with good accuracy / probability ?

For myself its normall 10 /15 minutes and anything past a session - then the probability levels go down . For example and I know both Spiro and Raj might agree with me on this - you can have situations / set ups were to predict the next 5-10 or even 15 pips as a 85% probability of happening in the direction you set up as shown. However on monthly predictions - its for me normally 50/50 and for daily its about 60% in my favour sometimes if it all lines up correctly it can be higher 70% etc - but of course the session changes from Europe to US can mess that up.

The other unknowns for most traders is really "how much money is available to be taken from the currency pairs set up ?? It amuses me when traders say for example - 65% of traders are short on the Euro and only 35% are long

That statement is the same as "how long is a piece of string? " for example the 65% of bulls who are long might have total wagers of say 100 million - whereas the 35% of bears short might have 180 million on going lower that session. Which side does the players go with  - personally I would say the side with the most money to take away.

However if 70% of bulls were long with 150 million in buys and 30% of bears only had 80 million - if i was a player i would tip the balnce with the bears and try and get a large chunk of the bigger money.

I hope that makes sense  - because the idea of trading and speculation is to "make money" within the loose confines of rules ;-)

Have a great week

Comment by Peter jcp on April 9, 2012 at 11:46am

That's another myth Spiro :-)

If we could all predict the future with any degree of accuracy - life would be so simple and great - but there would be no markets to play on - because if we were all correct- we would all win and nobody would lose- end result - no game :-)

However you can narrow your predictions down to assist your probability ratios - ie -

1. The market moves every day up and down and side ways

2. The market moves generally between 40 and 200 pips a day between highs and lows with the ATR's over many years on the EU around 120 pips.

3. It rarely moves the same direction throughout a 24 hr - 3 session period - ie 300 pips up or 300 pips down .

4. Important news - moves markets - either beforehand or at time of release.

5. Banks, Institutions news etc etc etc - in fact anyone with any moderation of power in this industry will mislead - ie a typical eaxmple XYZ Bank sees the Europe going to 1.2500 - however they fail to mention they see it going to 1.3500 first :-)

6. The tools you work with are therefore very suspect - ie charts, news, insider views , etc - so put all this into your equation before you decide on your prediction

7. Generally you will lose money before you start to see a method of getting your predictions fairly accurate - 50/50 is ok with good MM and as long as your wins are bigger than your losses.

8. To get to 60 and 70 and 80 % accuracy you need more than luck - you need skill - to get that skill takes time - generally years and years.

9. You can then predict some of the future with a moderation of success and profit from it.

PS - you will have another cup of coffee during the next 2 hrs :-)

4.

Comment by raj patel on April 9, 2012 at 11:50am

I take the point that my projection is dividing the mind set of traders. Confusion is the last thing I wish upon traders that have a view different from the projection. To that end i will remove the post and

till iI have a better way of presenting it.

Good Luck

Comment by Peter jcp on April 10, 2012 at 8:49am

I like the photo's - Lol - well you could say you are a fortune teller everytime you cross a very busy highway - most times you will predict correctly and not be hit by a 20 to lorry :-)

When ever you think you have the market "licked" it will bite you back - so remember to get out quick when the predictions dont go exactly to plan - have a good day Spiro :-)

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