Hello everyone , in this blog , I'll be releasing a weekly report for major currencies (EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CHF & USD/JPY), any important changes happen or good signals appeare , they will be updated immediately during the week ?!!
Note: Chart Time is GMT
EUR/USD (28 Feb - 04 Mar 2011)
1- four hour breach above 1.3861 and daily breach would be better , it will give us strong bullish momentum?!!
2- chances of resuming the upside wave will remain valid as long as stability is above 1.3670 , a daily breach below this level will test the area around 1.3540 -1.3470..
In overall 4 hour chart shows strong bullish momentum , the SM(20) shows strong support but 1 hour chart bullish are losing momentum and the pair is strongly oversold in the same time , anyway 1 hour breach below 1.3715 may test 1.3640..1.3610..and don't forget 1 hour breach above 1.3861 will support the bullish wave !!
Support 1.3785 1.3715 1.3680 1.3610 1.3540
Resistance 1.3825 1.3860 1.3890 1.3980 1.4000
Sunday 27 Feb 2011 12:30 PM GMT
Update: EUR/USD (02 Mar 2011) 15:09 GMT
The pair now is trading around the high of the year 1.3861 , 4 hour breach to this level , will give the pair strong bullish momentum , especially if it followed by a daily breach ...
Even intra-day time frames show strong possible of reverse ( Lots of Divergences) , I believe in divergences when they go with big time frames like daily or weekly ?!!
Keep in mind a daily close above the upper band of the bollinger band 1.3890 will give us supper bullish signal on daily chart , the pair may move 500 - 1000 pips ?!!!!!!!
GBP/USD (28 Feb - 04 Mar 2011)
From another point , we have sideways trend on 4 hour chart and bearish one on 1 hour chart , 4 hour breach below 1.6108 will test the 50 SMA on daily around 1.5905 , a daily breach below this level will change the daily trend to downward ?!!!!
Don't forget a daily breach above 1.6300 will test the area around 1.6455 and may be 1.6875..
Keep in mind ,chances of resuming the upside trend will remain valid as long as stability is above 1.6165 ?!!
In overall , I see the pair is trading now in critical area , we may witness sideways market next week or randomization in pair movement , I'd go long only with breaching of the weekly resistance 1.6300 ..
Anyway , The trading range for next week probably would be between the support level 1.5905 and the resistance level 1.6300
Support 1.6125 1.6070 1.5990 1.5965 1.5905
Resistance 1.6160 1.6230 1.6275 1.6345 1.6415
Sunday 27 Feb 2011 12:33 PM GMT
USD/CHF (28 Feb - 04 Mar 2011)
From the daily chart posted above , the space between SMA (20) and SMA(50) is narrowing while the price kept going down ?!! I guess we're gonna see some correction before we witness strong bearish movement this week ?!!
Whatever! the trend on 4 hour is downward but it's making some correction now , on 1 hour is weak bullish ?!
Chances of resuming the downside wave this weak will remain valid as long as stability is below 0.9415 , a daily breach above this level will test the area around 0.9690 -0.9590..
In overall , 4 hour and 1 hour shows that the pair may test 0.9290 - 0.9330 , this would be a good setup for short entry , don't forget to stop out with breaching of 4 hour above 0.9415....
In case the pair continue its way down ?!! A breach below 0.9220 will give us a strong bearish momentum to reach the area between 0.9020 ( Fibo %123.6) - 0.8900 (Fibo % 138.2) ...
Support 0.9200 0.9150 0.9100 0.9070 0.9000
Resistance 0.9330 0.9360 0.9430 0.9525 0.9575
Monday 28 Feb 2011 06:33 AM GMT
USD/JPY (28 Feb - 04 Mar 2011)
Even we have strong downward trend on 1 hour and somehow strong on 4 hour , the daily chart shows that we may witness some correction this week unless we have a breach below 81.30 , on another word we need a breach below the lower band of "the bollinger band" on daily chart , this would be a strong short entry , then the pair will test the area around 80.25 - 79.95...so I recommend to sell the pair with 4 hour breaching below 81.30 and stop loss at 82.50 , your target 80.00 ...
In overall , chances of resuming the downside wave this weak will remain valid as long as stability is below 82.50 , a daily breach above this level will attack the area around 83.95...
Support 81.45 80.80 80.35 79.60 79.20
Resistance 82.45 82.95 83.35 83.70 84.25
Monday 28 Feb 2011 08:20 AM GMT
Sell USD/JPY at 82.00 S/L at 82.40 T/P at 81.60
Wednesday 02 Mar 2011 07:35 AM GMT
EUR/USD Weekly Report ( 07 Mar - 11 Mar 2011)
The pair succeed to breach above the critical resistance 1.3860 last week , this breach gives the pair the momentum needed to reach (test) the area around 1.4280 , but the trend is strongly overbought on 4 hour chart , also we have a break-out pattern , soooo I'll keep watching 4 hour chart , a breach above 1.4010 will attack 1.4280 , a breach below 1.3940 will test the broken resistance level 1.3860 again and may late the bullish wave ?!!!
Trend Direction is upward , technical targets are around 1.4190 , 1.4280 , 1.4370 , the trend will remain valid as long as stability is above 1.3760 a daily breach below this level will weak the bullish wave this week...
Support 1.3940 1.3860 1.3800 1.3765 1.3715 1.3670 1.3625
Resistance 1.3980 1.4000 1.4050 1.4085 1.4160 1.4200 1.4280
Recommendations: Buy the pair around 1.3860 - 1.3890 , take profit at 1.4280 and stop loss at 1.3760 or
Buy the pair with a four hour closing above 1.4010 , take profit at 1.4280 and stop loss at 1.3860
Sunday 06 Mar 2011 08:05 AM GMT
The pair is trading now above the resistance level 1.4010 mentioned in the weekly report , a four closing above this level will give the pair strong bullish momentum to reach 1.4190 -1.4280 - 1.4370
Monday 07 Mar 2011 09:50 AM GMT
EUR/USD : update 02 (07 Mar - 11 Mar 2011 )
The pair has already breached above 1.4010 on 1 hour chart , EMA(20) ,EMA(50) are giving us strong bullish trend , CCI breached above the + 100 line , MACD already make a positive cross , all these data are giving us strong bullish momentum for the rest of the day ....but RSI is so close from overbought condition so it may randomize pair movement ....whatever ?
Now we only need stabilization above 1.4010 level especially 4 hour close above it to achieve our targets in the weekly report ?!!!
Monday 10:15 AM GMT
Our trade is activated....
Monday 07 Mar 2011 12:03 GMT
Even the pair breached above 1.4010 yesterday , but it failed to stabilize above it because of negativity of momentum indicators !!!
Anyway ?!! MACD histogram on 1 hour shows hidden bullish divergence ( A continuous trend pattern) , we only need a positive cross to activate it !!!
Tuesday 08 Mar 2011 05:37 AM GMT
GBP/USD Weekly Report (07 Mar - 11 Mar 2011)
From the 2 charts posted above , we have lots of bearish divergence(s) , so we may witness some correction this week or change in direction the next few weeks ?!!!
In overall , the pair is trading so close from the critical level 1.6225 , so I'll keep watching the pair around this level ?!!!
probably an hourly breach below this level would give the pair more bearish momentum, a breach above 1.6345 will support the bullish trend ?!!!!!
Trend Direction is upward (weak) , the trend will remain valid as long as stability above 1.6225 , a daily breach to this level may test 1.5980
Support 1.6225 1.6200 1.6165 1.6100 1.6070 1.5980 1.5900
Resistance 1.6275 1.6345 1.6415 1.6450 1.6500 1.6590 1.5700
Recommendations : Buy the pair with a four hour closing above 1.6345 , stop loss 1.6200 and take profit 1.6590 & 16700 or - if you like to risk - sell the pair around 1.6300 , take profit 1.5980 and stop out with a four hour closing above 1.6345...
Sunday 06 Mar 2011 09:30 AM GMT