Forex market and recent EU movements
During the last week, Francesc informed us through the main Forum the various positions of larger players ( Banks)
I was particularly interested yesterday that two of the largest players - Deutsche Bank and UBS were both reported to be bullish on the EU in the shorter term .
These two players make up approx 35% of the total Forex market according to the latest figures. Okay - there are probably another 5-7 banks working together that could "out trump" if they wanted too - and several smaller banks and institutions had admitted they were still short atm.
To put their size is context to the total retail market - the 2 largest players are between 3 and 4 times "bigger" than ALL retail - ie retail is only approx 9-11% of total market.
So if our all brokers told us all the retail traders in the whole world ( between 2- 4 million traders ( nobody really knows) were all "short" and selling the EU off like mad ;-) - It just would not matter - we don't count - (we can only follow - never lead on our own)
Please bear that in mind - and whilst we all look and watch our lagging charts that are great at telling us the past - remember start "thinking" and working out the markets "game plans"
Have a great September ( I have already ;-) )
Regards
Peter
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Replies to This Discussion
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Permalink Reply by Peter jcp on -
Looks like a lot of in house bull / bear fighting between 2590 and 2625 now.
I will carry on buying over 25 and previous high - but would look for sells if we make another LH around 2615-to 22 ;
Under 2583 then I would think its fading out again
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Permalink Reply by Keith Shaw on -
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Permalink Reply by Peter jcp on
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Like it Keith ;-)). Are those Bear walking away or coming to challenge??. My tick had said sell under 2615 - but because i kept part buy on - did not do. - silly me
At 5 mins to London Close need over 2611 to scalp buy again for another attempt - if that does not appear then bears might be coming to check out the play - and bulls might be having another rest ;-)
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Permalink Reply by Keith Shaw on
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Who knows for sure Peter, the bears have certainly been defending that teritory, you can clearly see the footprints ;). A number of key reports out tomorrow then NFP on Friday. Back to 'normality' next week, if there is such a thing in the markets anymore.
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Permalink Reply by Honest Sarjono on -
hehe...very clearly signals .. .
the bull and then the bear comes out :)
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Permalink Reply by Francesc Riverola on -
Hi Peter
HSBC seems pretty EURUSD bullish to me :)
HSBC - Time to stop worrying about the EUR and to start worrying ab...
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Permalink Reply by Peter jcp on
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Yes - just read it - very interesting - so we have the Bank of America and JP Morgan still bearish on the EU - but they are bound to be - they are American ;-)
Although with the US Presidential Election fever starting - I would have thought the US might be saying to the FED hold on guys - we will soon find out ;-)
Keep up the great work on all this info from these guys
Cheers
Peter
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Permalink Reply by Peter jcp on
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I think today and tomorrow will be important in the Forex market for the EU- but I feel next week might be a more important week.
I am trying to think what might catch many traders out today - and other than a 200 pip move either way - I can't? So down to 2580 or even 2480 would be not shock - and similar an attempt to 2680 and 2720 would be still in the range.
Doing both the low of these and the high could easily happen if not today - certainly within the 36 hrs from now ;-)
Think it out and enjoy your trading
Regards
Peter
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Permalink Reply by Jim Mathis on -
ty Peter
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Permalink Reply by Peter jcp on
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Hi Dimitar and Jim - well I hope you had a great day;-).We might have known that the market would do something special today and as usual in hindsight its easy.
Looking at the general forum - most guys were bullish with expectation of going up on the EU after yesterday's developments as well as hearing the 2 largest players were bullish and HSBC commenting on dollar worries.
I have as normal been trading both ways today on the EU and AU and then a small buy left on the GU after hearing that over 1.6000 was on ( thank you Francesc - keep getting the info from the big boys - it all helps in the decision making ;-) ).My scalp buys certainly outweighed the scalp sells as the pullback have been small - another clue that the EU wanted higher - and 2680 - 2720 -45/50 just could not curtail the long slow rise.
I was surprised to get over 1.2800 - but was there with it above 2777. A few of the guys in the gate chat are picking up some tips and if you hear of more traders with stop watches you might then be working it out ;-)
In the end the market makers and the "funny mentals" have shown that you can be an expert in technical trading with EW / Gann/ Fibo etc etc - but when "they" want to move it - they certainly can.
Here's to another great week to you all - next week :-)
Regards
Peter
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