EUR/USD "Overveiw"

Hello every one ...

In this Area , we'll be discussing EURUSD , technical analysis for the year 2011 , first of all we'll start with a close look over the year 2011,what's the probabilities , where's EURUSD heading for ?!! up or down?!!! sideways!!!!!

By the end of each month , a monthly report will be released , every Monday also we'll have a weekly report , whenever there's proper (chances) or critical changes in the market , a new one we'll be released immediately?!!

All comments are welcome !!

See you in the next post ..

Best Regards

Haitham653

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Permalink Reply by Haitham653 on March 5, 2011 at 8:51am

How Far Can the EURO Go?!!!

Well , I guess this is tough question ?!! as we see from the technical analysis , the pair is heading north ?!! yes this is true ...but?!!!!

Let's go to the point ?!!

The relationship between Oil and EURO is a positive correlation relationship , Oil goes up = EURO goes up , Oil goes down = EURO goes down..and so on ?!!!

The main point is; it depends on the situations on Mid-east , especially Libya , If we witness a solution in the next few weeks , the pair won't go beyond 1.4280 , even if this happen , the pair may need 2 months to move with monthly trend ( downward) , BUT if there's nothing but a military solution , wow I guess the pair will breach the monthly resistance 1.4280 quickly and fast more than you can imagine ?!!!

As I see we'll find out soooon ?!!!

Note: couple of days ago , we had a monthly close , and this is what we're gonna discuss in the next post ..so

stay tuned ?!!!

Best Regards

Haitham653

Saturday 05 Mar 2011 08:51 AM GMT

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Permalink Reply by Haitham653 on March 6, 2011 at 1:05pm

EUR/USD What's next ?!!!

From the chart posted above , we could easily notice that the pair is trading now so close from Fibo %23.6 on monthly - 1.4190 - in the same time , it's approaching from the upper line of the downward channel ?!!!

Check out the chart carefully , we have 3 critical levels here : 1.4190 , 1.4280 , 1.4370 ?!!!

Will the pair breach above 1.4370 ?!!!

I guess we have to wait for the end of March , and may be April too , to have clear picture about next targets rest of the year ?!!!

A monthly breach above 1.4370 will attack 1.5143 - high of Nov 2009- and 1.6035 - high of Jul 2008 - wow?!!

If the pair fails to breach above 1.4370 , it will test 1.2873 - low of Jan 2011 - and 1.1875 - low of Jun 2010 ?!!! or the pair may move in sideways pattern between 1.2870 -1.4370 ....

Whatever...the next few weeks are very important , they would tell us probably what would happen the rest of the year ?!!

Best Regards

Haitham653

Sunday 06 Mar 2011 13:05 GMT

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Permalink Reply by Haitham653 on March 8, 2011 at 1:42pm

Check out this chart carefully ?!!

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Permalink Reply by Haitham653 on March 9, 2011 at 11:36am

An hourly closing above 1.3925 will attack 1.4035...a breach above 1.4035 may attack 1.4150 (Fibo %138.2) and 1.4215 (Fibo %161.8)

Wednesday

09 Mar 2011 11:36 AM GMT

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Permalink Reply by Haitham653 on March 9, 2011 at 12:04pm

We have a bullish divergence , RSI above zero , CCI breached above 100 . the pair closed above 50 EMA , MACD positive cross, all these data are giving us strong bullish momentum for the rest of the day ?!

buy the pair 1.3930 S/L 13860 and T/P 1.4035

Wednesday 09 Mar 2011 12:03 PM GMT

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Permalink Reply by Haitham653 on March 10, 2011 at 7:20am

Becareful !! EUR/USD is testing the support of the upward trend channel on daily !

check out this chart carefully ?!1

The pair now probably will test the support of the upward channel on daily and 4 hour chart around 1.3810 , which match SMA 20 on daily chart ....

Also a bearish pattern almost completed on 1 hour chart , a breach below the nick line 1.3860 will test 1.3810...

So I recommend to stay aside until we have a clear vision about the pair reaction in this area 1.3860 - 1.3810

A daily breach below 1.3810 will weak the upward trend and probably would change trend direction ?!!!

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Permalink Reply by Haitham653 on March 11, 2011 at 2:06am

EUR/USD Possible end of correction?!!

The euro is trading now around major support level ,so far it still in the upward trend channel , and around SMA(20) too , Williams so close from over-sold condition ??

So this might be the end of this correction around 1.3810 ?!!

Incase the pair moves out the upward trend channel , the first test would be the support level 1.3710 which also is supposed to hit SMA(50) too , a breach below 1.3710 will attack 1.3525 and almost would eliminate the bullish trend ?!!