London as just opened and we have already set a another low at for today and as I type only 5 pips off the new 2 yearly low of yesterday.
Most traders can see from their charts that the EU is oversold and so therefore will need pullbacks or retraces during the day. Most of the present pullbacks during the last 10 days have been very small with the largest approx 70 pips.
We are near the large psychological important price of 1.2200 which might be looked upon as very important. You can imagine 10-30 pips below that price a lot of "stops" that could trigger another rally. The bulls will be doing their best to keep price above 1.2190 whereas the bears do want under that - as they know the effect it would have.
Will we get there today or on the infamous Friday 13th ?
I remember from yesterday key price areas of 2261 - 71 and 85 needed to show any moves being tried as buys.
I am not keen to scalp buy yet - but would over 2224 - 37 and 45.
Meanwhile i hope you have caught some pips on this 3 hr fall of over 30 pips so far.
Will the low go now or not?
What's next then ?
1.2364 bottom atm - and i can only scalp buy over 2385 - otherwise still in down mode with range of 20 pips- under 60 lower - over 85 turn starting ;-)
Eu tried the 2385 - but did not go higher and is currently testing another low at 2364 again .
The next 10 minutes will give us the next clue - the news on the hr did not seem to have any major effect and scalp buys only come in over 76 and 86 now.
it closed under previous low but not too much distance from low may be couple of pips... what next going towards 1.2200 or pullback to 1.2440 area ?
sry peter closed at low
again weekly and monthly bollinger abnd(21) starts expanding , bearish engulishing on weekly. from my knowledge pullback to 1.2334 is on the cards before any down.. its all depends on gap on monday.. happy trading peter
Hi Elan - Yes when I posted this discussion it was prior to Friday and the NFP announcement etc.
We will in the future be discussing in the "foreXmosgate gate" group subjects like this in a lot more detail with inputs welcome from all.
However, in brief - If you look back over 7 days on the EU - you had a big rise up on the last day of the month - then a 420 pip fall over the last 5 days of trading.
The big push on the last day of the month - was designed - ( I wlll not say manufactured or manipulated - because that's wrong ;-) ) to take week bears out of their sells - and to get aggressive bulls into more buys.
ie - To change the sentiment and to paint a false picture that next stop was 2850+ then 2900 then 1.3000 etc.
It then took approx 2 and half days for traders to realize that 250 pip increase on the previous Friday was not really as it seemed ?
Then the "killer punch" - quick and precise - nearly 350 pip drop in 3 days.Most importantly - a new yearly low.
So one for you to think about Elan - 420 pip drop in 5 days of which 350 pips happened in 3 days?
Nothing to say we cannot drop another 350 pips next week with more bad news - but normally pairs need a "rest" or a break first - as bears take their profits and aggressive bulls - "revenge" trade or simply look for 50-150 pips of payback ;-)
I will be scalp buying and selling on Monday - but at present I don't know which session i will be doing more off.
Have a great week.
I am also extremely curious to see what happens. First, indicators like rsi are extremely oversold on 1h and 4h, second, some significant move down already happened, third, Marius is buying gu which correlate with eu ;), forth, sentinent is heavy downward. All this against 2 things though: bad fundamentals and daily charts point to lower figures - both eu and gu. Gonna be fun this week...
Monday 9th July just after London Open at 8am UK time - 3am NY and EU / GU / AU - all trying slow moves up as pullbacks from Fridays lows.
On the EU - we need to see under .1 2280 area to look at more sells - and as we go above 2300 I expect initial resistances at 2315 -20 and 2330 areas.Under 2280 would be tries on lows with supports then at 2240 -50 and around 2200-2208
On the GU 1.5480 is needed for sells again and over 5500 initial resistances at 5520-30 areas.
Out most of morning so updates for US sessions
Have a good week
Morning Sun - agree with you smaller frames up to daily might be well OS - but still room for further falls within your channels.
The initial pullbacks up into the 2300 price area did not have any strength and failed to reach resistance areas at 2320-30 zone. Being a Monday am - markets still quiet and reviewing all info and data before progressing further.
2270 ish is trying to hold as a HH above new low of 2255 but can only scalp buy and would need back above 2300 again to show any start of consolidation.and further retraces.
Have a good week
HI Keith and Elan - coming up to 1pm UK time and 8am NY.
EU on scalp bias - under 2293 - then 2288 and 84 - down again
Whilst above 2295 trying up to crack 06 and 2317.
With US markets opening soon - we might get false moves next hour and half - so would not want to commit on swings atm until we see more clarity.
Similar on GU and AU - - both awaiting US markets and small breaks either way with a range under 40 pips.
Updates after more movements and any breaks